Guts & Numbers

"I notice increasing reluctance on the part of marketing executives to use judgment; they are coming to rely too much on research, and they use it as a drunkard uses a lamp post for support, rather than for illumination."                                                                               David Ogilvy

"I don't need somebody behind a desk to tell me what a marketing survey says is funny. I got 3 million miles and 70,000 tickets sold, telling me that I know how to make people laugh."                                                                                                                                   D. L. Hughley

As long as there have been marketing departments and advertising agencies there has been a tension between practitioners who use research to back up their decisions and those who trust their judgement, or their gut.

The problem with this argument is that there seems to be no middle ground.  Believers of research are most comfortable when every decision is backed up with data.  Proponents of "the gut" will often talk about their superior instincts, their understanding of the target audience and their track record of creative, off-the-beaten path solutions.

It seems to me that there is a place for both decision making strategies in developing creative and effective marketing programs.  The history of advertising is full of stories about the maverick adman who bucked the trend and the research department and had a huge success, based on his instincts.  If we relied only on market research, we probably wouldn't have some of our most popular and revered marketing campaigns.  You see, research is really good at measuring the effectiveness of messages and media that the public is already familiar with.  It is not nearly as effective at capturing the effectiveness of new ideas or new platforms.  You may know the Henry Ford quote "If I asked my customers what they want, they simply would have said a faster horse."  Likewise, 10 years ago, if you questioned people about whether they would like to get information about a company on a free internet site that is primarily social in nature (Facebook) or on access special offers from a retailer on their telephone, I am pretty sure you would have gotten poor responses and a lot of strange looks.

What those stories don't tell us is that the same maverick geniuses have a lot more strike outs than home runs.  Research can help focus a message or a strategy to help it become more effective with target markets.  Research can also help identify shifts in public perception, both in general, say in their understanding and desire for Model Ts, or about a product in particular, say the Edsel.

So it seems to me that "marketing magic" is not in having great instincts or being able to craft surveys that accurately measure customer intentions but in striking the right balance between guts and numbers.  Using data to help make decisions only makes sense but measurement and analysis have never been as good at measuring the new and innovative as they have been at analyzing the tried and true.  I suppose this is why I consider marketing and communications an art as much as it is a science.